# Before the Budget, make sure you can see your own numbers

> Small firms expect a tough Budget on 28 October. You can't change what's announced, but you can know what it means for you. Three numbers to get straight first.

Published: 2026-10-23
Author: Dan Cluderay

Nobody running a small business can change what gets announced. What you can change is how long it takes you to work out what it means for you.

The Budget is on 28 October, and small firms aren't expecting good news. YouGov asked 2,010 business decision makers what they expect. Among small and medium firms, 56% think it will leave businesses worse off. Only 14% think it will help. Cash flow was a top-three worry for 28% of SMEs, against 17% of larger firms.

Nobody running a small business can change what gets announced. What you can change is how long it takes you to work out what it means for you.

## The squeeze is already happening

The ONS published its latest business survey on 22 October. A third of trading businesses said the prices of what they buy went up in September. That's 12 points higher than a year before. Only 12% said they had put up the prices of what they sell.

That gap has to go somewhere. It goes on margin. And in most small firms nobody sees it until the accounts come back, months after the money has gone.

## Three numbers to get straight before Tuesday

**1. Decide what "money" means.** Ask three people in the business how it's doing and you'll get three answers. One means sales. One means gross profit. One means what's in the bank. All three are fair. But a Budget change hits each one differently, so agree which one you're talking about and stick to it.

**2. Know what each product really makes.** Not the price minus the cost in the spreadsheet. What it makes once it has been bought in, stored, picked, packed and sent. Some lines that look good on sales are quietly losing money once delivery and handling go up. You only find them when your shop, your stock system and your accounts agree with each other.

**3. Know how much cash is on the shelves.** Stock that isn't moving is money you've already spent. If costs keep rising, that's usually the first place to find cash. You need to see it by product, not as one figure on the balance sheet.

## If you can't answer these in an afternoon

That isn't a reporting problem. It usually means the systems don't talk to each other. Orders live in Shopify, money lives in Xero, stock lives in a spreadsheet or someone's head, and every answer means exporting three files and arguing about which one is right. I've written about [what disconnected systems really cost](/insights/disconnected-systems/), and about [getting Shopify, Xero and stock to agree](/insights/before-you-connect-ai-to-shopify-and-xero/) before you add anything else on top.

When they do agree, a Budget stops being a guessing game. You can see which products carry the business, where the cash is tied up, and what a change in cost does to each one. You can make a decision on Wednesday instead of next quarter.

It also ties back to [agreeing where the business is going](/insights/agree-where-the-business-is-going/). You can't steer by numbers nobody trusts.

If you'd like help joining up your [Xero](/integrations/xero/), [Shopify and warehouse](/integrations/shopify-wms/) data so these answers take minutes, [get in touch](/contact/).

## Sources

- YouGov, Half of business leaders expect the 2026 Autumn Budget to leave UK enterprises worse off, 21 Oct 2026: yougov.com/en-gb/articles/55793
- ONS, Business insights and impact on the UK economy, 22 Oct 2026: ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/businessservices/bulletins/businessinsightsandimpactontheukeconomy/22october2026